NASCAR Brickyard 400 expert predictions: Denny Hamlin is favored at the Indianapolis oval

The NASCAR Cup Series is returning to the oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway after a three-year absence. The Brickyard 400 is back this weekend. NASCAR used the combined road course in Indy from 2021-2023 under the name Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. The Brickyard 400 runs the classic IMS oval and has been the most attended NASCAR race in the past. Kevin Harvick won the last two versions of the Brickyard 400 in 2019 and 2020. Of the drivers in this year’s field, Brad Keselowski won in 2018 and Kyle Busch won in 2015 and 2016. Jimmie Johnson, a four-time winner, is also in the field. Johnson has a chance to tie Jeff Gordon for most all-time Brickyard wins at five. Keselowski is among the favorites at +850 on BetMGM. Denny Hamlin (+375) and Kyle Larson (+575) are the favorites going into the weekend. There are five races left in the regular season and 12 different races winners so far, meaning few playoff spots are up for grabs. Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi previewed the race and made some predictions about what to expect from NASCAR’s return to the Brickyard. The Brickyard 400 is set for Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and broadcasts on NBC. Are you excited to see the Indianapolis oval replace the combined road course after a three-year absence? Jeff: Extremely. This is such an important race, because everyone in the garage wants to say they’ve won on the Indianapolis oval. It’s truly one of the world’s greatest race courses and is steeped in the kind of history you just don’t get at most tracks. The racing can be boring at times there, but to me the Brickyard 400 has always been about the significance of seeing the best go head-to-head rather than the pure entertainment value of the event. Jordan: While the idea of shifting to the Indy road course had merit and worth trying, the time has come for NASCAR to return to the oval configuration. Running the road course muted the appeal of racing at Indy, to the point where the race felt like just another race. And that’s not at all what Indy is supposed to be about. The Brickyard 400 was a major on the schedule, creating a void when it went away. You can’t fill that. Instead, it’s best for all involved to return to the oval so that luster can also return to what once was a marquee event that best spotlighted NASCAR’s top drivers and teams. We’re two weeks removed from the Chicago street race and now headed to the Indy oval. Where does the Brickyard 400 rank among the pure spectacles on the schedule? Jeff: This honestly isn’t much of a spectacle in the usual NASCAR sense. And particularly since it’s at the same track as the Indy 500 – ‘The Greatest Spectacle in Racing,’ with a crowd of more than 300,000 and incredible vibes – the Brickyard just doesn’t have that type of scene. But again, I’ll take a good old fashioned battle between the best teams and drivers going all-out to win a race that carries so much prestige for them. Aside from the Daytona 500, if I were a driver this would be the race I would want to win the most. Jordan: The difference between Chicago and Indy is that the latter is one of four crown jewel races, the kind of win that gets highlighted on a resume due to the significance. And while Chicago has quickly become an outstanding event it still has a long way to go before it will ever have come close to replicating the importance of winning the Brickyard 400. Denny Hamlin is the favorite, and by a decent margin ahead of Kyle Larson. Neither have won here before. Are they logical favorites? Jeff: This is a race Hamlin has talked about for years, because he’s come painfully close to winning it several times. Along with a Cup Series championship, it’s the one major race trophy he’s missing – and his career probably only has two or three good years left, if that. So this is a crucial moment for Hamlin, and you would expect the No. 11 team is going to pour a ton into this one. That said, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Hamlin and Larson battling for the victory – and given their recent history of hard racing, it might result in neither of them finishing the race. Jordan: Hamlin has a strong case for being the favorite. That he hasn’t yet won the Brickyard is surprising. But Larson, and even Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott, are worthy of that status, too. All of which makes Sunday’s race so fascinating as this version feels more wide open than previous years. Who is your pick to win the Brickyard 400? Jeff: Hamlin is the pick on paper. Toyota will be strong here and Hamlin just had the fastest car last week at Pocono Raceway, which is a similar type of track. That said, you often see these things go differently than you expect. Chase Elliott seemed to have a car that was capable of getting through traffic at Pocono and could have been in contention if not for a late speeding penalty, so for the sake of picking someone other than Hamlin, let’s go with him. Jordan: As noted above, Hamlin should be the favorite for all the obvious reasons. So too should Larson. But let’s also not overlook Blaney, who comes in having won a week ago at Pocono. Are there any drivers who haven’t won yet this season that have a good shot in Indianapolis? Jeff: The obvious one here is Martin Truex Jr. He’s consistently shown winning speed, but just hasn’t put a race together to grab a victory. This is typically not a race for upsets; all but five Brickyard 400 winners have won a Cup Series championship. So I wouldn’t get too crazy beyond the normal group of drivers for this one, especially given the emphasis the entire garage will be putting into trying to get a Brickyard trophy. Jordan: Truex is a name that immediately jumps out. Another is his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs, who’s had a standout sophomore season and is due for his first-career win any week now. And Indy offers him a prime opportunity to get that victory as JGR often excels here with this track long favorite powerhouse teams like JGR.